Dems Are Sweating: Texas Primary Results Suggest Massive Red Wave Is Coming in November

By Richard Moorhead March 2, 2022 at 11:39am

Republican turnout surged in Tuesday’s Texas primary, a concerning sign for Democrats who face a potential red wave in the state — and across the country — in November’s midterm elections.

On Tuesday, 300,000 more Republicans voted in the Texas’ primary than in the 2018 primary, with Democratic turnout remaining largely stagnant.

Do with this info as you will (I wouldn’t make predictions based solely on primary turnout):

2018 TX primary – 60%-40% R, about 1.55 million R votes for gov & 1 million D votes
2022 TX primary – 65%-35% R, about 1.9 million R votes & 1 million D votes

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) March 2, 2022

Just over 1,050,000 Democrats voted in the primary for governor, considered a foregone conclusion for Beto O’Rourke.

In comparison, more than 1.9 million Republicans voted in the gubernatorial primary, nearly doubling the election turnout of Democrats.

Democratic turnout remained almost completely stagnant in comparison to 2018.

TEXAS MIDTERM PRIMARY TURNOUT, 2010-2022:

Dem 2010: 681K
Dem 2014: 554K
Dem 2018: 1043K
Dem 2022: 1023K (about 95% tallied) (-20K)

Rep 2010: 1485K
Rep 2014: 1338K
Rep 2018: 1550K
Rep 2022: 1891K (about 95% tallied) (+341K)

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) March 2, 2022

The primary turnout could bolster predictions of a 2022 red wave, with some political pundits speculating the election could see Republican gains on par with historic midterm sweeps, like the ones in 2010 and 1994.

Will the 2022 midterm bring a red wave to Texas?

The primary saw two surprises.

Attorney General Ken Paxton will face George P. Bush in a May runoff after failing to secure the 50% vote threshold to win the Republican nomination outright.

Democrat Henry Cuellar will face AOC-endorsed progressive Jessica Cisneros in a May primary after failing to secure 50% of votes in the primary for Texas’ 28th congressional district.

Cuellar is considered one of the most conservative House Democrats. He has supported some pro-life legislation and border security measures — both ideas largely unheard of in a party known for its support of unlimited abortion and open borders.

Governor Greg Abbott easily defeated primary challenges from two conservative contenders, Don Huffines and Allen West.

O’Rourke, a gun-grabbing progressive, won the Democratic nomination for governor without facing serious opposition.

O’Rourke will face pressing questions from freedom-loving Texans, having waged a presidential campaign on the basis of forcibly seizing the legal firearms of American gun owners in 2020.

After last night, Republicans likely have a full slate of Latinas contesting three Rio Grande Valley seats: #TX15 Monica De La Cruz#TX28 Cassy Garcia (pending runoff)#TX34 Mayra Flores

Rs already favored in #TX15, but all three could be in play in a total Dem collapse.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 2, 2022

Republicans are eyeing flips in the border region of the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas, having made political gains with Hispanic voters in the area.

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