Tropical Storm Julia Forms Over The Caribbean Sea, Forecast To Strike Nicaragua As A Hurricane
Tropical Storm Julia formed Friday near the coast of Colombia, and AccuWeather meteorologists warned that it could rapidly strengthen into a hurricane over the Caribbean Sea prior to slamming the coast of Nicaragua with life-threatening impacts this weekend.
The disturbance AccuWeather has been tracking for over a week and dubbed a tropical rainstorm on Tuesday was upgraded by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to Tropical Depression 13 on Thursday night. At midday on Friday, the NHC said the depression had strengthened into the 10th tropical storm of the 2022 season.
As of 11 a.m. EDT, Julia was moving toward the west at 18 mph (24 km (78744.00 feets)/h) with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph on Friday. Julia was located 560 miles (900 km (2952900.00 feets)) to the east of Isla de Providencia, Colombia, and about 110 miles west of the northern tip of Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center said hurricane watches and warnings were issued for parts of Nicaragua and the offshore islands of Colombia.
The only deterrent to the storm’s development much of this week has been the proximity to the coast of South America. The system moved steadily westward all week and was responsible for torrential rain and flooding early on in the Windward Islands of Trinidad and Tobago. Torrential downpours spread westward through the northern coast of Venezuela and the ABC Islands during the middle days of this week.
As the system moves westward and into the open waters of the southwestern Caribbean on Friday and Saturday, it could quickly ramp up into a hurricane, according to AccuWeather Senior On-Air Meteorologist Mark Mancuso.
A Category 2 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph (154-177 km (580737.00 feets)/h).
AccuWeather meteorologists are growing more confident that landfall along the central coast of Nicaragua is likely on Sunday morning. Seas will build, winds will increase and rain will ramp up in advance of Julia’s arrival later Saturday and Saturday night.
Due to Julia’s expected impacts in Central America, particularly in Nicaragua this weekend to early next week, AccuWeather meteorologists have rated this storm as a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
Based on the landfall of a Category 1 hurricane, frequent wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph (100-130 km (426530.00 feets)/h) are anticipated in northeastern Nicaragua where a StormMax™ of 110 mph (175 km (574175.00 feets)/h) is most likely. Winds of this strength are likely to lead to a substantial number of power outages, downed trees and property damage.
Operators of recreational and commercial fishing vessels and cruise ships are urged to avoid the path of the storm, while preventative measures to protect lives and property are strongly encouraged by forecasters at this time.
A life-threatening storm surge of at least several feet (a couple of meters) is possible near and just north of where the eye of the storm moves ashore along the coast of Nicaragua.
A general 8-12 inches (200-300 mm (0.98 feets)) is forecast in central and western Nicaragua, as well as part of southern Honduras and perhaps eastern El Salvador where an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches (500 mm (1.64 feets)) is anticipated. Rainfall of this magnitude will lead to major flooding of rivers, flash flooding of small streams and urban areas, and the likelihood of mudslides in mountainous terrain.
Heavy rain, flooding and localized gusty winds will spread westward and northward over Central America and into southern Mexico later this weekend to early next week.
Should Julia become an even more powerful hurricane, then wind, rainfall and other impacts will be substantially more extreme and extensive in Central America.
Once inland, there are several possible scenarios that AccuWeather meteorologists are analyzing. It is possible that Julia, as a tropical rainstorm, could regenerate in the waters surrounding Central America and southern Mexico.
It is possible that the original center of Julia survives and reaches the eastern Pacific or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and reorganizes or strengthens early next week. In this case, the storm would retain its original name. However, if the old circulation center of Julia completely diminishes, a system with a new name could evolve.
“Redevelopment in the eastern Pacific or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are both options, as well as the storm simply diminishing early next week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
Beyond early next week, the zone from the southern Gulf of Mexico through the western and central Caribbean Sea may remain a tropical trouble spot. A front is forecast to dip into the region and stall. While this may generate disruptive wind shear, it may also help generate more spin in the region that could allow a new tropical system to take shape. Because of this, the region will remain under the watchful eye of AccuWeather meteorologists.
There is also some indication that yet another tropical system could evolve around the middle of the month over the north-central Atlantic, west of the Azores. This system would not be a threat to the U.S.
But, while Julia does not pose an immediate threat to the U.S., there is a slight chance that a regenerated Julia or a brand new system could wander close to parts of the Gulf Coast, or the waters east of Florida, during the middle of October.
Produced in association with AccuWeather.
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