Could There Be a Red Wave in 2024? New Statistics Show Trend Republicans Should Be Celebrating
Conservative readers would be forgiven if they never want to see the phrase “red wave” again.
Prognosticators’ credibility took a hit during the 2022 midterm elections when the much-ballyhooed “red wave” failed to materialize.
Still, if one can gauge the temper of the times by voter registration statistics, then Republicans have reason for optimism in 2024.
In short, the trends look good.
In a few places where Republicans have fared well of late, the numbers actually look staggering.
The Orlando Weekly, a liberal newsweekly so far to the left that it features an “Abortion Rights” news section, reported on June 20 that registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats in Florida by nearly half a million at the end of May.
This means that Republicans in the Sunshine State have gained nearly 200,000 net registered voters since the 2022 midterm election.
Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Florida as recently as 2020.
Elsewhere in the South, one sees a similar trend.
On Tuesday, InteractivePolls posted a chart on Twitter showing that Republicans have gained nearly 300,000 net voters in Kentucky since November 2019.
Kentucky Voter Registration Edge
Nov. 2019: 🔵 Dem +212,620
Nov. 2020: 🔵 Dem +91,962
Nov. 2021: 🔵 Dem +45,656
Nov. 2022: 🔴 GOP +30,352
June 2023: 🔴 GOP +64,116
Since Nov. 2019:
Democrats: -152,365
Republicans: +124,371https://t.co/I9JQUo9Lum pic.twitter.com/YYnkrVZke5— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 4, 2023
In 2019 Kentuckians narrowly elected Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, so these registration figures suggest a significant red shift in the Bluegrass State.
If ad spending serves as any indication, then President Joe Biden believes that a familiar set of five or six swing states will decide the 2024 presidential election.
In April, Maggie Haberman of the New York Times reported that Biden would begin buying ads in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Biden beginning his ad buys starting tomorrow, in AZ, MI, NV, PA, and WI so far, per an ad-tracking source
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) April 25, 2023
She later added Georgia.
+ GA, per another source
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) April 25, 2023
Recent statistics from several of those swing states bode well for Republicans.
For instance, voter registration data from January 2023 and April 2023 show net gains for Republicans in Arizona.
Likewise, data from November 2022 and May 2023 show both relative and absolute losses for Democrats in Pennsylvania.
All of these numbers, of course, require a good deal of perspective.
Not all registered voters vote. The 2024 election is still 488 days away. Voters often cross party lines. Electoral shenanigans remain likely.
Still, the trend tells a story. Republican registrations have surged for a reason — in fact, for many reasons.
The mere thought of what a voter would have to believe in order to register as a Democrat in 2023 makes one marvel at how the Democratic Party remains in existence at all.
If trends continue — God willing — perhaps that, too, will change.
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