GOP Voting Numbers Show a Growing Issue, And It Might Cost Trump 2024
Editor’s Note: Our readers responded strongly to this story when it originally ran; we’re reposting it here in case you missed it.
Former President Donald Trump continues to rack up wins in GOP presidential primaries across the country, the latest on April 23 in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
But some say there was a worrisome sign in that victory.
Trump won decisively with a whopping 83 percent of the Republican vote in the Keystone State. However, there was “a potential warning” for the former president in those numbers, according to the Miami Herald.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley won almost 17 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania even though she dropped out of the race more than a month before.
It was a fairly high number for a candidate whose campaign was suspended back on March 6. And it prompted the NeverTrump group Republicans Against Trump to crow about what the numbers might mean.
“WOW. Nikki Haley got nearly 17% of the vote in today’s Republican primary in Pennsylvania, six weeks after she quit the race,” the group said in a post on X.
“This is a huge red flag for the Trump campaign in a battleground state,” it said. “Many Republicans will never vote for Donald Trump.”
WOW. Nikki Haley got nearly 17% of the vote in today’s Republican primary in Pennsylvania, six weeks after she quit the race.
This is a huge red flag for the Trump campaign in a battleground state. Many Republicans will never vote for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/zwH05tuE9r
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) April 24, 2024
Haley had received less than 13 percent of the vote in the Wisconsin GOP primary on April 2 and about 14 percent in the Ohio primary on March 19.
In a follow-up post on April 24, Republicans against Trump said, “156,950 Republicans voted against Donald Trump In yesterday’s GOP primary in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump is in real trouble.”
156,950 Republicans voted against Donald Trump In yesterday’s GOP primary in the battleground state of Pennsylvania
Trump is in real trouble. pic.twitter.com/FFu6yK2YP5
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) April 24, 2024
Democratic operative Kaivan Shroff also made a point to highlight Haley’s numbers, writing on X, “She has 155,000 votes with 98% reported — nearly 2X the margin Trump lost the state by in 2020.”
2 takeaways from the Pennsylvania primaries:
1) Haley got nearly 17% of the vote despite dropping out 6 weeks ago. She has 155,000 votes with 98% reported — nearly 2X the margin Trump lost the state by in 2020
2) Democrats had much higher turnout overall
Good news for Biden. pic.twitter.com/d4oiembFOL
— Kaivan Shroff (@KaivanShroff) April 24, 2024
Haley, who could not even win her home state of South Carolina, performed the best around the liberal enclave of Philadelphia.
Democratic strategist Matt McDermott insisted that Trump was “hemorrhaging votes in the Philadelphia suburbs” and that the numbers were “Major red flags for Republicans.”
Biggest takeaway from yesterday’s primary in Pennsylvania: Trump is hemorrhaging votes in the Philadelphia suburbs.
Look at the Nikki Haley protest vote in:
Montgomery – 25%
Delaware – 24%
Chester – 24%
Lancaster – 20%
Bucks – 19%Major red flags for Republicans.
— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) April 24, 2024
Still, election history analyst Michael Barone, a writer for the Washington Examiner and a member of the American Enterprise Institute, said Haley’s showing in Pennsylvania might have less meaning than Trump’s critics hope.
Barone said her 17 percent take was not necessarily an indication of Trump’s weakness in Pennsylvania.
“Party registration is a lagging indicator, and in a state like PA where most people have stayed put a long time,” he said in a post on X.
“They haven’t bothered to change their registration or want to keep voting in Republican primaries in local or legislative elections,” Barone said.
Does Nikki Haley’s 17% of registered Republicans in Pennsylvania mean that Donald Trump is weak among Republicans in November? Not necessarily. Party registration is a lagging indicator, and in a state like PA where most people have stayed put a long time 1/x
— Michael Barone (@MichaelBarone) April 24, 2024
They haven’t bothered to change their registration or want to keep voting in Republican primaries in local or legislative elections. 3/3
— Michael Barone (@MichaelBarone) April 24, 2024
In the end, there is no clear answer as to whether Haley’s showing in Pennsylvania spells trouble for the presumptive GOP nominee.
But it is clear that the situation is being used by Trump’s enemies to cast doubt on his electability this fall.
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