PBS Buries Figures from Own Poll Showing Hispanic Support for Trump Skyrocketing Since Shutdown Started
I don’t want to fall into the contingent that sits here and tells you that polls don’t matter. They do, and politicians should understand what they mean for their policies and their electability.
However, when a seemingly anomalous figure emerged in a recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll, it got buried in a mountain of other coverage.
You probably saw a number of stories based on the major finding of the poll: “57 percent of voters say they won’t support Trump in 2020,” PBS’ headline read.
“With the 2020 presidential election already underway, 57 percent of registered voters said they would definitely vote against President Donald Trump, according to the latest poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist,” the story read.
“Another 30 percent of voters said they would cast their ballot to support Trump, and an additional 13 percent said they had no idea who would get their vote.
“Although the election is still nearly two years away, the large number of voters who oppose Trump as well as his low approval ratings suggest the president faces a ‘steep, steep incline’ in winning re-election, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
“‘The president has had his base and not much else,’ Miringoff said.”
So, let’s start with the obvious: If you’re a Trump supporter, that’s not a good sign. Even compared with the 2016 polls that showed Trump with no chance, this one seems to show him with, well, no-er chance.
Now, granted, it comes during a politically tempestuous period over a government shutdown and constant Democrat demonization of the border wall funding request that precipitated it.
Still, nobody will end up calling this good news.
However, one unusual trend in the poll — and how it compared with previous polls by NPR/PBS/Marist — should have stood out to anyone who took a close look at it. And yet it’s received relatively little play in media reports about the survey.
First, it’s worth noting Trump’s wall has not infrequently been called racist. This would mean, obviously, that the racism would be directed toward Latinos. And yet, despite this characterization, support for Trump among Latino voters has shot up in a major way during the shutdown.
The last poll taken by NPR/PBS/Marist was conducted between Nov. 28 and Dec. 4 — before the beginning of the shutdown.
When asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?” 31 percent of Latino voters said they did, compared with 64 percent against and 5 percent unsure.
Asked the same question between Jan. 10 and 13, in the midst of the shutdown, 50 percent of Latino voters approved, 46 percent disapproved and 4 percent were unsure.
That’s a dramatic turnaround, and a further breakdown showed just how much change had taken place. In November-December, 12 percent of Latino voters strongly approved while 19 percent approved. Twenty-two percent disapproved and 41 percent strongly disapproved.
Compare that with January, when 29 percent strongly approved, 22 percent approved, 4 percent disapproved and 41 percent strongly disapproved.
While strong disapproval numbers might be hard to move, it seems basic disapproval numbers aren’t. And yet, even with those numbers in such flux, Latino voters said 27 percent definitely planned to vote for Trump while 58 percent planned to vote against him.
Furthermore, in the January poll, 36 percent of Latinos approved of the job that Republicans were doing in Congress versus 50 percent that didn’t. That isn’t great until you realize the Democrats did even worse — 25 percent approval, 53 percent disapproval.
You can interpret these results in any number of ways. Perhaps the president’s brand is so damaged among Latino voters that even if they approve of the job he’s doing, they’re not going to vote for him. Perhaps it’s the Bradley Effect at play, writ large. Or perhaps the “definitely” in this question isn’t so definite.
I’d personally like to see what this poll looks like after the shutdown is resolved — or, at worst, when both sides are so significantly dug in that further negotiations are fruitless and the shutdown will continue for quite some time.
I’d also like to see what this looks like when the Democrat field begins to shake out over the next few months; when faced with the distinct possibility of a three-way Biden, Bernie and Beto race for the nomination, I don’t think as many independent voters are going to be so definite about their decision to vote against Trump, particularly Latino voters.
It’s also a demonstration that Latino voters aren’t reflexively against the border wall in the way we would have assumed. If they were, why would Latino support for Trump shoot up during a shutdown based on wall funding?
Make no mistake, though: This is something that deserved wider coverage. Marist, the pollster here, ought to have at least highlighted this. PBS and NPR, however, are publicly funded media outlets. Institutions that use my tax dollars ought to at least pretend to some level of objectivity. To completely ignore a huge jump in support for the president and the GOP among Latino voters seems, well, incredibly subjective.
I’m not an “all polls are wrong” kind of guy. If you assume Trump will be the nominee in 2020 and you want the Republicans to keep control of the White House, this is not a cheery read.
However, it’s also one with some unusual numbers — statistics that may make you think twice about how set in stone the conclusions it reaches may be. At least with one key demographic, it seems, Trump could be turning things around in a major way.
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