Polls Reveal Positive Signs for Trump - Highlight Significant Work for GOP Senate Candidates

By Samantha Chang May 3, 2024 at 8:13am

A new poll shows former President Donald Trump edging out President Joe Biden in seven battleground states, setting the stage for a potentially close race in November’s presidential election.

According to the latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Tuesday, Biden trails his presumptive Republican opponent by 3 points or more in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump lost most of these swing states in 2020, so winning them this year could help him punch his ticket back to the Oval Office.

The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters April 25-29. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percent.

In Arizona, Trump leads Biden by 4 points, with 48 percent support versus 44 percent, according to the poll.

In Georgia, the Republican is up by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent.

The former president has a 1-point lead over the Democrat in Michigan and Nevada, 45 percent to 44 percent.

In North Carolina, Trump leads Biden by 5 points, with 47 percent support to 42 percent.

And in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he is up by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent.

New: Swing State Polls with @thehill

AZ: 48% Trump, 44% Biden
GA: 47% Trump, 44% Biden
MI: 45% Trump, 44% Biden
NV: 45% Trump, 44% Biden
NC: 47% Trump, 42% Biden
PA: 47% Trump, 45% Biden
WI: 47% Trump, 45% Bidenhttps://t.co/tt6RQ0rGGP pic.twitter.com/c1xsuqa3Po

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) April 30, 2024

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said the swing state polls haven’t changed much during the past six months.

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” Kimball said.

“The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” he said.

The latest survey also shows independent voters favoring Trump over Biden in battleground states.

“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48 percent to 38 percent), Michigan (44 percent to 35 percent), Nevada (43 percent to 37 percent), Pennsylvania (49 percent to 33 percent), and North Carolina (41 percent to 38 percent),” Kimball said.

“However, they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42 percent to 38 percent) and Wisconsin (44 percent to 41 percent),” he said.

While the poll paints an encouraging picture for the former president, the leading GOP Senate candidates are trailing their Democratic counterparts in five races, according to the Emerson survey.

Will the GOP win the House and Senate in November?

In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is up by 2 points against Republican Kari Lake, 45 percent to 43 percent.

In Pennsylvania, 46 percent of voters support incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, while 42 percent support Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

In the Michigan race to replace the retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, 42 percent support Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, while 40 percent support former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.

In Wisconsin, 46 percent of survey respondents support incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, while 43 support Republican Eric Hovde.

In Nevada, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by 8 points, 45 percent to 37 percent.

In a hypothetical matchup between Rosen and another Republican challenger — Jeff Gunter — Rosen leads by a wider margin, with 47 percent support versus 33 percent.

Obviously, polls are not the end-all-be-all, since they’re temporary snapshots of public sentiment that can and do change over time.

Having said that, the latest survey paints a troubling portrait of Biden’s failed presidency as an administration in shambles.

This isn’t surprising, since the United States is being roiled by crippling inflation, soaring crime and daily border invasions.

JUST IN – Biden’s approval rating average is lower than any other president in recent history at the same time in office — Gallup pic.twitter.com/sVRmg6AHK4

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) April 26, 2024

Even with Trump being bogged down with sham lawsuits, there’s growing sentiment that things cannot continue as they are with Biden in office.

That said, even if the 45th president secures a second term, he’ll have a hard time accomplishing anything if the GOP loses control of the Senate.

Either way, both Trump and Biden have their work cut out for them if they want to win re-election come November.

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