Budding Tropical Threat Expected To Become Typhoon, Take Aim At Philippines
A new tropical depression formed on Wednesday to the east of the Philippines, and AccuWeather meteorologists say it will threaten to bring the islands another round of strong winds and flooding downpours into the weekend.
The depression, known as Paeng in the Philippines, was located several hundred miles east-southeast of Manila in the Philippine Sea, just northwest of the island of Palau, as of Wednesday evening, local time.
By Thursday, AccuWeather forecasters say the depression will strengthen into a tropical storm and ultimately a typhoon on its final approach to northern Luzon over the weekend. When it becomes a tropical storm, it will be given the name Nalgae by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the tropical authority for the basin.
The tropical cyclone is set to deliver another round of heavy rain and strong winds to the same area that experienced severe flooding earlier in the month. Severe Tropical Storm Nesat brought 4-8 inches (100-200 mm (0.66 feet)) of rain to northern Luzon in just 24 hours over the weekend of Oct. 15, leading to dramatic water rescues and the evacuation of hundreds of people.
Forecasters say the depression could become a tropical storm as early as Thursday, as it tracks west toward the Philippines. The outer bands of the cyclone could bring heavy rain to eastern Visayas on Friday and the Bicol region on Saturday. After that, it is expected to make a close approach to the northeastern part of Luzon on Sunday, potentially as a typhoon.
“The amount of rain and wind will depend on the exact track and the storm’s proximity to land,” said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
The heavy rain along and near the path of the emerging tropical threat could lead to flash flooding, river flooding and mudslides. Storm surge flooding along coastlines is also a concern when the center of the cyclone passes by.
Strong winds could lead to structural damage and blow around loose objects, especially if the cyclone becomes a strong tropical storm with sustained winds of 55 mph (89 (292009.00 feet)/hr) or greater or a typhoon with sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km (390439.00 feet)/hr) or greater.
The cyclone is expected to turn north, then perhaps northeast after it impacts the Philippines. This could lead to potential impacts in Taiwan, Japan’s Ryukyu Islands or even mainland Japan into next week.
Taiwan was also severely impacted by Nesat over the weekend of Oct. 15. Over 70 inches of rain (1,778 mm (2.55 feet)) fell over 72 hours in the Shilin District of Tapei City, with many other higher-elevation parts of the island measuring 28-40 inches (700 to 1,000 mm (0.00 feet)) of rain.
Produced in association with AccuWeather.
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