Tropical Storm Lisa Forms, Could Become A Hurricane Before Hitting Central America
Tropical Storm Lisa formed in the western Caribbean on Monday, and the newly formed storm could reach hurricane intensity before making landfall late Wednesday in Central America, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
As of 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Lisa was located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 365 miles southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Lisa’s maximum sustained winds were 40 mph, and the system was moving to the west at a speed of 14 mph. A tropical storm watch was in effect for Jamaica.
Forecasters have been suggesting since the middle of October that a tropical storm could brew in the region around the end of the month or during early November. On Sunday, as the system began to steadily organize, AccuWeather meteorologists began to refer to the budding storm as a tropical rainstorm in order to help people in the projected path of the storm to begin preparations. Early on Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) dubbed the system Potential Tropical Cyclone 15.
Prior to becoming Lisa, the tropical system looked rather disorganized early Monday morning, AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton said. Multiple NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be used to investigate the storm each day for the next few days, according to the NHC.
The most intense thunderstorm activity continues to be displaced well to the east of the exposed center, and development will be slow until the activity consolidated,” Thornton said. “The longer that the system takes to actually develop, the lower the chances that it will become a powerful hurricane before making landfall.”
According to the latest forecast track put together by AccuWeather meteorologists, a landfall in Belize is most likely to occur Wednesday night. However, as the storm approaches the coast, winds and seas will build as rainfall ramps up on Wednesday.
Should the system take a more westerly course, rather than track just north of west, it could reach land sooner and strike Honduras. In this case, the storm’s development window could be chopped by 12-18 hours, and the chances it would become a hurricane would diminish.
The western Caribbean has a history of storms that have undergone rapid intensification, provided the right atmospheric conditions were in place. Meteorologists say it’s not out of the question that could happen with this system.
“As a word of caution, it is also worth noting that this storm is rather small,” Thornton said. “With tropical systems, this often means that if and when conditions allow it to finally become better organized, a sudden burst of intensification cannot be ruled out.”
“Deep water temperatures in the path of the storm are bathlike and in the 80s while wind shear is forecast to drop off in the northwestern Caribbean,” AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno added. “These conditions could foster rapid strengthening.”
Wind shear is represented by stiff breezes from the same direction or varying directions over a particular area of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear usually inhibits tropical storm development and/or strengthening. Low to moderate wind shear can aid in the development and strengthening of a tropical system.
AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Lisa as a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Central America and less than one for islands near the path of the storm in the Caribbean. The Saffir-Simpson Scale for Hurricanes takes into account only the wind intensity while the RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes and tropical storms takes into account rainfall, storm surge and risks to lives and property as well.
A life-threatening situation could unfold regardless of the peak wind intensity of the developing tropical system as the storm pushes inland over Central America with torrential rainfall that is likely to unleash flash flooding and mudslides.
A general 4-8 inches (100-200 mm (0.66 feet)) of rain will fall directly in the storm’s path with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches (300 mm (0.98 feet)) possible in some localized areas. In addition to urban flooding, streams and rivers are expected to rise, while runoff over the hillsides can lead to mudslides. Some of the worst conditions could occur over the mountains as far inland as Guatemala and to the south over Honduras.
Winds near the center of the storm and for 100 miles (160 km (524960.00 feet)) or so inland are likely to gust to 60-90 mph (100-150 km (492150.00 feet)/h) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph (160 km/h). At this force, trees and power lines will come down, and damage to homes and businesses can occur.
By Thursday or Friday, Lisa is likely to become a tropical depression or rainstorm as it loses wind intensity. However, if the circulation center of the storm survives the trip across southern Mexico or western Guatemala, it could become the third system to retain its name while reaching the Eastern Pacific basin this year — something that has never happened before on record.
Back in early July, Tropical Storm Bonnie pushed into the eastern Pacific. Bonnie’s journey across both basins made it one for the record books, as the storm traveled more than 6,600 miles and became one of only four systems to ever cross over Central America and become a major hurricane in the Pacific.
More recently, in October, Julia survived the trip across Central America and spent a few hours as a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific. Julia was only the second system on record to pass from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific basin with at least tropical storm in intensity in the same season. The storm was blamed for more than two dozen deaths in Central America.
Areas from the Caribbean to the southwestern Atlantic could be a trouble spot for further tropical activity well into November, experts say.
Some meteorological data suggest that waters within a few hundred miles of Florida could be near the middle of such activity during the second week of November. A broad area of low atmospheric pressure is likely in the region with pockets of showers and thunderstorms. Any of these disturbances slowly could evolve into a tropical system over time.
The Atlantic hurricane season will officially conclude on Nov. 30.
Produced in association with AccuWeather.
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